How to avoid world war III

"But this — we got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel. So I’ve told people that if you’re interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon…" - G.W.Bush - 10/17/07

“I think the rapid growth in Russian military spending definitely bears watching,” Rice said. “And frankly, some of the efforts - for instance, Bear flights in areas that we haven’t seen for a while - are really not helpful to security.” - Condolezza Rice - 10/16/07

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/18/europe/18turkey.php - Turkish parliament approves incursion into Iraq to deal with attacks from the PKK

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=464921&in_page_id=1811
- Russia lays claim to vast oil fields in the arctic near the north pole.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=154905 - Putin visits Iran

OK, so there are several threats here that need to be evaluated, and I'm gonna break them down into three separate conflicts: U.S. vs. Iran, U.S. vs. Russia, and U.S. vs. Turkey. Then we'll be able to see what is the central issue joining each conflict. (hint: it's oil!)


U.S. vs Iran
If you're not aware of the push to war with Iran from the Bush administration, then you've been living under a rock for at least a year. Do yourself a favor and watch the news tonight, I guarantee there will be a story on it. In short, Iran claims it wants to develop nuclear energy, but the U.S. asserts it is trying to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. claims Iran is directly funding terrorist attacks on our soldiers in Iraq, and while Iran doesn't directly deny this, the truth is more money comes into Iraq to support Sunni terrorists from Saudi Arabia, a staunch "ally" of the U.S, than comes into Iraq from Iran to support the Shiites. Iran was involved in the detainment of British sailors, while the U.S. has on several occasions rounded up Iranian "diplomats" in Iraq. Both sides of course are wrong, neither side is being at all honest or forthcoming, both sides are doing things that are both illegal and immoral, but that's just international relations for you. The danger with Iran though is that things will escalate further for a JUSTIFIED REASON. The fact is, the longer we are in Iraq, the more likely it is that eventually something drastic will happen between the two countries. Two nations can only push each other for so long before one crosses the line and provokes a full out war. It could be the U.S. deciding to strategically bomb Iran's "nuclear sites", it could be as simple as Iranian border guards with itchy trigger fingers killing U.S. troops. The danger with the U.S. being in such a tense situation with Iran while in Iraq is that a situation may arise where we SHOULD go to war with Iran. At least that is how it will be presented to us when American soldiers end up dead by Iranian hands. I don't know if I'll be able to disagree with them. And it will be a damned shame too, because the populous of Iran is surprisingly pro-American. Most young Iranians crave better relations with the west, and don't like the old, islamist leaders of their nation who keep their country from advancing economically and technologically through their constant saber rattling. Of course, the quickest way we could possibly galvanize support for the failing leadership in Iran would be to go to war with them.

Ok, break for today, tomorrow I'll post U.S. vs Turkey, then on sunday U.S. vs Russia, and finally on Monday the conclusion.