Wait, what?

This post covers the democratic side of the race, if I can get through it without feeling too nauseous, I'll do a write-up of the republican side as well.

So the only thing that was really decided last night on super Tuesday is that nothing will be really decided for weeks and possibly months to come. So what does this mean for the candidates? Well somewhat surprisingly, the man who may have come out of super Tuesday with the most improved position may be John Edwards.

After a poorer than expected showing in South Carolina senator Edwards dropped out of the democratic primaries. With Obama gaining momentum and Clinton holding steady, his chances of winning the nomination outright had been whittled down to nothing. However, by not endorsing anyone in the race, he kept himself relevant to the discussion, since he still commands a lot of loyalty from a large segment of liberal democrats. It may be true that Obama picked up more voters when Edwards dropped out than Clinton did, but I can tell you from speaking to people on the phone during phone-banking for the Obama campaign that there are many democrats that were very upset at Edward's defeat. I believe there are a lot of voters out there who would not vote for either candidate in the primaries without a direct endorsement from senator Edwards. That is why it was a bit surprising that he decided not to endorse either candidate before super Tuesday, which it looked could decide the race or at least clearly indicate the direction of the momentum in the race.

Now that the race is clearly still wide open (I'll address who I think has the best chance in the next post), John Edwards's decision looks brilliant. First of all, by not endorsing either candidate he leaves himself open to a cabinet position in either administration. Where it gets really interesting though is if the race continues to be as tight as it currently is, and the possibility of a brokered convention arises.

First, a quick explanation of how the primary works and what a brokered convention means. You're probably aware if you've been watching election coverage that what's more important than winning states is how many delegates each candidate wins. The way the system works is that at the democratic convention a group of about 4000 people act as delegates who each cast their vote for the democratic party's nominee for president. In most primaries this is a formality since the clear winner emerges long before the convention. However, if the race is still tight going into the convention, then a brokered convention could occur, which is basically a huge horse-trading shit-storm in which the campaigns try desperately to win enough delegates to ensure their party's nomination. The reason this is important is because not all of the delegates are "elected" in the public primaries in each state. About 20% of the delegates are called "super-delegates" and are allowed to vote for whoever they want, regardless of the results of primary elections. For a list of the super-delegates in the democratic party see here:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

John Edwards of course still holds some delegates that he won during the earlier primaries. Also, he could potentially deliver a large amount of the super-delegates should he decide not to endorse anyone before a brokered convention occurs. This could end up making John Edwards the king maker in the race, letting him choose the eventual nominee. Even stranger, there's a chance that the democratic party could completely change course if party insiders decide that John Edwards would make a better candidate against whoever the republican nominee ends up being. There's a chance that they could end up making HIM the eventual nominee. Confused yet? So am I.

So what's more relevant after Super Tuesday is the race between Clinton and Obama, and the momentum of the Obama campaign vs. the stomping Clinton delivered in California. (Strange how that Maria Shriver endorsement had little effect, right?) I just happen to find it interesting that what I thought was a huge mistake by John Edwards ended up being one of the best decisions he's made so far in the campaign. Still, the possibility of a brokered convention is VERY small, and has never happened since the advent of the current primary system in the '50s, despite coming close a few times, notably in '88.

So while I enjoyed speculating about the possibilities ahead, I hope you may have learned something about our convoluted political system! Tomorrow I'll convince you though that Obama will be able to win the nomination outright over the next few months!