Every spring training is full of questions for the coming season, and this one is no different for the cubs. Who are their starting pitchers going to be? Will Zambrano pitch on opening day or will he cede the responsibility to Ted Lilly on what is typically his worst pitching day of the year? Will Felix Pie get his bat going and work out in center field? How will Fukadome adjust to US baseball?
I could keep on goin' but there's one question that I've been focusing on pretty intently and it's the one that I think is most open to debate and opinion. Who is going to be the closer in 2008?
The closer might change during the year so a better question might be "who will start the season as the closer?", but what I'm more concerned with is who people think would be the best closer for 2008. The way I see it, you have three candidates who pitch in slightly different styles, but are close to the same type of pitcher. Of the three Howry is the oldest and by necessity the craftiest. He still throws his share of strikeouts and will pitch to contact, but he's more able to work counts and get outs using his infield. Marmol is somewhat opposite in that he's a young pitcher with a young arm who can strike players out with ease but also throws a higher percentage of strikes than you might expect from a strikeout pitcher. Wood is in a position where he might be midway between the two in style. He used to be a dominant strikeout pitcher but after all the surgeries and time on the DL and hot tubs he's fallen out of, he's not the same pitcher he used to be. We saw last year that he can still be dominant on occasion, but he no longer can rely on pure throwing power to get outs.
To be honest, I'm not sure who I think would be the best. I'd love to see Wood be able to come back and be a hero in Chicago again. He has always tried to live up to what he feels is his obligation to the team and the city that gave him his chance, and has accepted less money and lesser roles throughout the time he was rehabbing. But I'm not sure that he would be best for the role. I'm waiting to see how things play out but what I expect will happen is that Marmol will start to be groomed for the role in the hopes that he will be the teams closer for a while to come.
So what do you guys think? Would you go with the experience, the youth, or the past success...the way in the the past success?
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Marmol, Howry or Wood. I'm not going to say with any certainty who the opening day closer is going to be. But I will say that the closer of 2008 should definitely be Carlos Marmol. This guy's stuff is far too electric to have him wallowing in middle relief. He proved in '07 that he had great stuff and good command. All he needs to prove now is that he can handle the pressure of closing. To a degree, I think he came close to proving this decisively in '07. Piniella constantly put him in high-pressure "stopper" situations, and Marmol responded terrifically. The only knock against him is that he had a poor post-season, but his individual post-season was not as bad as the whole team's... so you can't fault him too much. I expect that if Marmol has a decent spring training, the job will be his. Bobby Howry isn't really a good long-term solution. I think he thrived in the pressure situations and he really stepped up when Dempster was out in June and July, but that's not enough for me. He's been a regular closer once in his entire career, 1999 for the White Sox. I don't think it's a good idea to take a good career set-up man and try to turn him into a closer, it can often wreck the guy (LaTroy Hawkins anyone?). I think it's a monumentally bad idea to rely on Wood for anything. ever. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy for taking pay cuts and I admire his resolve. Not many people can fall (out of a hot tub) as many times as he has and continue to get back up. He's a damn hard worker and he's still a good pitcher, but we cannot ignore past history here. He's unreliable and he's constantly battling injury. Don't take a chance on such a crucial position.
My prognosis: if Marmol has a lackluster spring, then expect to see Howry as your opening day closer, but don't get too comfortable, by May Marmol will be your guy. If Marmol lights up Scottsdale, from day one he'll be king of the 9th inning.
PS - pitchers and catchers... Geovany Soto please stand up. I'm super-excited to see more of this guy. He's a champ.
I'd go with Mitt Romney. He's amazing.
The closer position is an elusive role to figure out. Outside of about 5 consistently reliable closers, you would be hard pressed to name truly dominant pitchers who have had sustained success in the closer role over the past 10 years. Hmm..Rivera, Hoffman, Joe Nathan, Wagner, K-Rod. Who else is there? Everyone else has enjoyed success for a couple seasons, before injuries or ineffectiveness buried them into the black hole of middle relief the rest of their careers. You'd be shocked if you looked at the roster of no-names who have recorded 40 or more saves for, say, one season in their careers over the past decade and a half. Antonio Alfonseca? Joe Borowski? Bryan Harvey? Doug Jones? Jeff Shaw? The closer position has a way of catapulting a person with relatively weak stuff who succeeds at it for one or two years into the best thing since sliced bread, only to fade into oblivion as fast as they had risen.
The point is that aside from a precious few, all bets are off every time spring training opens as to who will be effective and who will not. Yes, you can look at closing experience when gauging who should get the first shot, but by that logic, we decided to go with Alfonseca the year after he had 45 saves, and look how that ended up.
I think the criteria for such a precarious decision should be who has demonstrated to simply get hitters out most efficiently. This can be determined by Runners Left on Base stats and WHIP stats. You had better be able to strand inherited runners if you are going to be a closer, and if you pitch on the same staff as Base-on-Balls happy Cubs middle relief. Carlos Marmol was 2nd in the National League in BOTH WHIP and Inherited Baserunners (minimum 40 inherited baserunners) last year.
Keith is correct in that there is no way you open the season with Kerry as your closer. He needs to demonstrate he can make it an entire season staying healthy, let alone be relied upon to get outs 25, 26 and 27. And I was very impressed with Howry last year, and would not have a problem with him being given the first shot. But indeed it does look like being a drop-dead closer is Marmol's destiny, while Howry has been a veteran for ten years, and setting up is what he does best. It's why we got him in the first place.
One of the most agonizing scenes as a Cubs last year was watching Marmol give up that postseason homerun to the Diamondbacks the inning after an effective pitching performance by Zambrano. All of us collectively said "Well, they hit our best guy. Hats off to them." And remember how everyone piled on Piniella for taking Z out after the previous inning? These people didn't know what the fuck they were talking about. Marmol's ERA last year was 1.23 last year and he thrived in the very same situations he was put into in that Diamondback game. I wonder how deafening the criticism would have been had Piniella left Z in, and Z was the one to give up the dinger? "Why did you leave Z in?" "He was clearly getting tired!" "Why didn't you bring in Marmol?!" I've never gotten over the media reaction to that.
Anyhow, to go with Marmol as your closer out of the gate, after such a crushing moment for him last year in the postseason, I believe would reinvigorate his confidence and his overpowering fastball and slider. My lineup for the 7th/8th/9th innings would be three guys with closer stuff: Wood/Howry/Marmol, much like the early 2000's Houston Astros trio of Lide/Dotel/Wagner. DAMN. How good were they?
Yeah, I guess I agree with you guys that Mitt Romney, I mean, Marmol should be the closer eventually. I sincerely hope, and I do believe that he will be a lights out closer for many years. Of course I do still worry about throwing him out there too early. Like you said yourself Ty, past success is not the most reliable indicator of future success when it comes to relief pitchers. And if straight statistics where most important then why not michael wuertz for closer? He has been great in situations where he's inherited runners.* I guess I disagree that he's had enough high pressure situation experience to yet justify putting him out there in the 9th inning day after day. Still, if I were the manager and the game was being played today, I'd put marmol in to keep my one run lead in the 9th.
*- inherited runners is a weird term. usually you inherit something good because something bad happens. in this situation you get something bad because of something bad happening. although i guess you can inherit debt too, so, touche english language.
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